The past following years have witnessed major economies changes and crisis around the world, from Brexit to the Greek Crisis. But one major economic crisis that may have a significant impact on world economy; is the US-China trade war.
How it all Started
It all started with the US imposing a tariff on steel and aluminum, to protect its domestic industry. Resulting in China issuing a proposition to impose duties on agricultural goods worth $3 billion imported from the US. This was just the beginning of a cold trade war between US and China.
The months following, both countries entered into a cold war like situation. If the US imposed a tariff on goods, China responded by imposing a tariff on the export of the US’s goods. Thus, if after due process, all these tariffs are imposed, it would increase about 15% of bilateral good traded.
Such steps have had a significant implication on global trade. The US is the largest importer of goods at $2.2 trillion and exporter of goods at $1.4 trillion. China stands at number one with exports of $2.1 trillion and second for imports of $1.5 trillion on 2016.
Glocal Market Impact
The recent volatility on the implementation of tariffs has adversely hit Global Markets. If this war is persistent, the existing tension between US and China could go beyond trade wars into Supply Chains. Predicting the worst-case scenarios, companies might have to relocate factories and distribution centers. It would further affect employment and taxes. This escalation of tariff war could affect the global economy, especially the UK eyeing for free trade Brexit.
Britain is a relatively open economy have put its faith in global trade. Any shake on the global trade system can significantly threaten Britain’s prosperity.
Even if full-fledged trade war is a prediction of the near future, a fragmented and protectionist world would only increase the challenges for the UK, since its exit from EU.
With the US being the leading service exporter in the world, any trade negotiations between US-UK would put the US an advantage. Especially when Britain is concentrated on the trade of goods rather than services. A medium sized country like the UK will find it increasingly difficult to have favorable trade negotiations with countries beyond EU.
Now taking India into perspective, the dwindling trade agreement between US and China could bear positive results for countries like Brazil and India in the short run. With China imposing large tariffs on agricultural products like soybean, could prove to be of advantage for India. But, taking into consideration, the long-term impact, traders are in for some bad news. The trade war could lead to higher inflationary and low growth scenario.
Indirect Impact of the Trade War
Considering the indirect impact of the trade war on the scenario, an increase in interest rates in the US could have implications for the equity and debt market. Even a trickle or drop change in US trade could have a ripple effect on the Indian trading system. Economists have warned India to brace itself of a volatility and stress resulting from both foreign and domestic markets.
With the tit-for-tat conflict happening between US and China, there will be a mix of countries get hurt and others emerge as winners. Only time can actually show the reality.